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Potential value of Epitan (Read 1271 times)
terencemcdermott
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Potential value of Epitan
06/04/04 at 04:21:48
 
I read relatively recently on here about Epitan´s potential value should its products come to market reasonably successfully.   Estimates put a potential value of up to 59 Aus Dollars/share on the stock.  However, the guy who did the estimate seemed to presume that EPT would pocket all  revenue from commercialisation (and at estimates of between 2 and 5 billions dollars, that be a lot of cash!!)  However, it now seems that it was always more realistic that EPT would have to get into bed with a big player in order to successfully bring the drug to market.  I presume this is true - from what I have seen in various analyst´s reports it would seem to be so.  Given that, EPT will probably ´only´ pocket about 5-10% of the sales royalties.  Does anyone techie out there know what this might mean for the potential share price, presuming the 2-5 billion total revenue is still accurate?
 
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trent
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Re: Potential value of Epitan
Reply #1 - 06/04/04 at 06:59:04
 
I have not seen this valuation you are talking about where epitan pockets all of the cash.
As far as royalties go,ill be very dissappointed if epitan recieve 5-10% of the profits!
They have taken the drug so far and to give 90% of the profits away when all they require is 30million to get through phase 111 and hopefully fda approval for a drug which captures a 7 billion usd plus market is crazy.
Maybe a drug starting or in phase 1 trials which doesnt capture a big market recieve 5-10%profits
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endymion96
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Re: Potential value of Epitan
Reply #2 - 06/04/04 at 17:19:51
 
Those analyst reports you've read are, in my opinion, completely dumb. If you have a product like Epitan has .. that has the potential to be as huge as Viagra or propecia, if not larger. Do you think you would give it away for nothing? I doubt that. Epitan should be in for a 20-30% cut if you ask me .. 5-10% is assinine. Secondly, they will need to partner with a big pharma to generate and distribute the drug. So I think that's a given.
 
The only way they would get all the profits is if they could somehow come up with the 30 mil to complete the phase III trials and then have another 10-15 mil for marketing, but then they'd also have to make the drug to .. so I doubt this will happen at all.
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terencemcdermott
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Re: Potential value of Epitan
Reply #3 - 06/06/04 at 06:17:37
 
I realise only getting a 5%-10% royalty sounds unfair but then it depends what the bigger players are willing to offer.  They know EPT has to get past Phase 3 and doesn´t have the funds to do so, so unless a bidding war starts between big pharma companies, it could very well be the case that 5%-10% is what EPT have to accept.   Rationally, I would have thought that this would be drug all the big pharma companies would want to pursue and this could put EPT in a good position to bump up its share of the profits.   However, at a guess, I think big pharma companies arent going to want to start a precedent of paying 30%+ to small biotech companies who need funding.  Still (and hopefully), maybe EPT´s product will be so enticing that it will be able to leverage a higher cut of the profits.  
 
Of course it would be best if EPT could go it alone but I suppose the problem is that all they would have as collateral for a loan would be the company and the company´s value rests in the approval and success of the drug.  ie. it would require a very risk taking bank to loan the money.
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trent
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Re: Potential value of Epitan
Reply #4 - 06/07/04 at 06:52:18
 
Im not sure if you have read the same article that came out two months ago but it was an article in the USA which showed how desperate large pharma companies are for potential drugs being developed.
The article explained how large pharmas are snapping up small biotech companies (sometimes before they even finish phase 1 trials)and the lack of potential drugs they forsee in the future.These pharma companys are looking for blockbuster drugs to have in their pipeline.
It is my opinion that Epitan can sit back and take their pick when partnering......not having to accept a  5-10%deal on a potential 7billion dollar + drug
As for viagra/propecia.......melanotan users will  outweigh both of these drugs put together.
Trent
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